Four safe Dees

. . . but PM not so certain to retain his seat, Wickham says

The Democratic Labour Party (DLP) is all but certain to retain four seats in the next general election, but St Michael South represented by Prime Minister Freundel Stuart is not among them, according to pollster and political scientist Peter Wickham.

Wickham’s prediction is consistent with the findings of the recently-concluded series of Pulse of the People random surveys in all 30 constituencies conducted by Barbados TODAY in the lead up to the election due by the middle of next year.

In keeping with the survey findings, Wickham argued that Stuart should not be ruled out because, as Prime Minister, his seat ought to be safe.

However, he is under “serious pressure” from newcomer Kirk Humphrey of the Opposition Barbados Labour Party (BLP), who is in with a chance to steal the constituency from the DLP leader.

Meanwhile, Wickham endorsed the Pulse of the People finding that St Michael North West represented Minister of Finance Chris Sinckler, St Philip North held by Minister of Transport and Works Michael Lashley, St Philip West where the incumbent is Minister of Agriculture, Food, Fisheries and Water Resource Management Dr David Estwick and St John, represented by Mara Thompson, were safe DLP seats, saying they acted as firewalls for the incumbent.

Chris Sinckler, Michael Lashley, Mara Thompson and David Estwick

“Those to me are the four seats. The Prime Minister’s seat should be a safe seat, but that one is under some serious pressure . . . and your interviews with that are consistent with what I have been hearing and feeling on the ground scientifically. If I take the national swing and I impose the national swing on various constituencies, that is the formula that you are coming up with, that you are having a few DLP safe seats,” he told Barbados TODAY, reiterating that the swing was away from the incumbent.

The Pulse of the People surveys had found that while Sinckler was likely to lose some support, he had a firm grip on his constituency.

Wickham explained that this was so because the incumbent was playing the right kind of local politics.

“You mentioned Chris. I agree with you . . . that is a safe seat, and it is a safe seat for a couple of reasons. He has a good base going in, but it is also a constituency where his style of politics sells well. A lot of housing areas, a lot of needy people; and when you are in a position to satisfy individual needs, it goes a long way in those kinds of areas,” Wickham said.

He also said it would be difficult to oust Lashley from St Philip North because of his strong showing in the last two general elections.

In 2008, Lashley won 68 per cent of votes cast in his constituency, second only to David Thompson who polled 83 per cent in St John, while he won by more votes than any other candidate in 2013, securing the support of 4,053 voters, ahead of the 4,025 votes by Mara Thompson, who first won the St John seat in January 2011, following her husband’s death in October 2010.

On the other hand, the political scientist said that seat could be up for grabs if there was any truth to reports that Mara Thompson was withdrawing from the race.

“Mara of course is St John. What I worry about are rumours of her not returning. To me that is a game-changer. But in a sense, once she does go, it would be business as usual and that one would be one of the [vulnerable] seats,” Wickham suggested, while also predicting that Attorney General Adriel Brathwaite, who represents St Philip South, was among the most vulnerable DLP incumbents “because his was the most narrow St Philip seat . . . and the whole of St Michael, the whole of Christ Church and St George, I think is vulnerable to the Barbados Labour Party”.

However, he insisted there was no guarantee that the BLP would win all the “vulnerable” seats.

The Barbados TODAY random polls found that DLP candidates were being hurt by the tough economic conditions facing the country, with a large percentage of Barbadians insisting it was time for a change.

The survey also found an apparent growing interest in so-called third parties, a great sense of apathy in some constituencies, significant levels of indecision, and large numbers of DLP supporters who planned to stay home, because while they were disappointed in their party, they could not find it within themselves to vote for the BLP.

While Wickham all but dismissed the third parties, he thought the findings that national issues would greatly influence the way people vote were spot on.

“I know when elections come the third party is not going to have an impact. So that is one of the concerns I would have had coming out of it that the third party seems to be more popular than it is . . . and it has a lot to do with that vocal minority that you have been speaking to.

“The prevailing climate to me is the factor in this election and you seemed to [have picked] that up in your exercises, that you are saying that in all instances the prevailing economic climate, people are voting on that and that’s the concern. The reality is that, scientifically, that is spot on,” the Director of the Caribbean Development Research Service Inc said, adding that his own polls found that Barbadians intended to vote on national issues.

“When we ask people what is the main reason that they are voting . . . they are voting national leadership, they voting national issues, they voting the cost of living, they voting their pockets. That to me is the main issue that resonates. If you go at the level of the constituency and you ask people about constituency issues . . . things about roads and what’s not are secondary to the fact that people got to live,” he added, while refusing to predict  the final seat-count for the upcoming election.


emmanueljoseph@barbadostoday.bb

27 Responses to Four safe Dees

  1. Lisa Moore
    Lisa Moore October 16, 2017 at 10:49 pm

    He knows good about Dees

    Reply
  2. Keen Observer October 17, 2017 at 4:04 am

    Peter also said that the DLP will lose the last election.

    Reply
    • straight talk October 17, 2017 at 11:52 am

      Yes, and he was right but they had all the money to buy the votes and misleading the public about privatization especially the transport board.

      Reply
      • Bajan October 17, 2017 at 2:32 pm

        DLP won because they played the better politics. However, that political strategy they used in the last elections might not help their political cause in this upcoming general elections.

        Reply
  3. Saga Boy October 17, 2017 at 4:28 am

    Wait I thought the DLP was going to loose all their seats.

    Reply
    • harry turnover October 17, 2017 at 7:10 am

      Saga Boy,I thought so too.It would be a travesty if those Johnnies were to vote Mara Thompson again for one…but..
      you see me… ALL AH DEM GONE…doan want none left…only de die hard yard fowls and paling cocks would want to see DEM as the Official Opposition.
      Kelli must be fuming up there in moon town that Wickham got he to lose he seat too.
      Suppose though that Kelli is the only one left standing though….you know what that would mean ?…Dennis Kellman..the LEADER of HER MAJESTY’s OPPOSITION…hear he talking..”.as the Leader of the OPPOSITION …I hearby say ….blah blah blue”

      Reply
  4. RB October 17, 2017 at 7:20 am

    I want DEM to lose ALL.

    Reply
  5. Mark My Word October 17, 2017 at 7:54 am

    Is this Fake News, BLP propaganda like last election when same Pollster cum Obeah man cum Prophet cum self made Political Scientist, BLP yard Duck made the prediction that BLP would of won last election.

    Same false Prophet predicted Hillary would win

    Reply
  6. Saga Boy October 17, 2017 at 7:58 am

    You all behaving like the BLP has an unblemished record. Why did the people get rid of them in 2008? But I should not expect a different answer from BLP Candidate or yardfowl supporters. Interesting that there is going to be a swing against the DLP and the man BLP say causing the pain has a sure seat. It tells me that this will be a constituency by constituency contest. Do you really feel Sandra Husbands will beat Inniss or the PM WILL LOOSE HIS SEAT? Even Suckoo has Dwight on the run.

    Reply
    • harry turnover October 17, 2017 at 10:29 am

      Saga Boy…didn’t know you were one a DEM but the BLP will win ALL OF THE SEATS….as you say CONSTITUENCY by CONSTITUENCY as though there is another way to win.
      Did the people of Barbados GAINED anything when they got rid of the BLP in 2008 ?

      Reply
  7. Darson October 17, 2017 at 7:58 am

    harry turnover and others : have you ever heard the term ,(wishful thinking) so no Richard sealey, no Jones no Pm no Donville NO Kelly no Lashley my Favourite Cultural minister ever ?
    we have a surprise for you all but we will wait until ; KEEP WISHING AND THINKING , THE DEMS ARE PLANNING AND WORKING .

    Reply
    • harry turnover October 17, 2017 at 10:33 am

      Big man ..aren’t you WISHING and THINKING that the DEMS will get a third term too ?
      If the DEMS so confident ..RING DE BELL NOW and stop the delaying tactics.

      Reply
  8. Saga Boy October 17, 2017 at 8:12 am

    Is this information coming from the same Wick-ham who allegedly changed the results of a poll in 2008? Is he the same one who said the DEMS would lost in 2013? We all know he does not like the PM so his exclusion is no surprise and we all know he likes Chris.

    Reply
  9. fedup October 17, 2017 at 8:19 am

    RB I agree wid you. ALL!!

    Reply
  10. Milli Watt October 17, 2017 at 9:45 am

    Mara for PM………..or maybe the oldest daughter. like how this shaping

    Reply
  11. Greengiant October 17, 2017 at 10:00 am

    It’s not in the people’s interest for any one party to hold all the seats. Wickham probably is responsible for the ‘pulse of the people’ program as well. If he is the data will obviously be the same, if he’s not then maybe the sample surveys were done in identical areas as the pulse program. In that case the results would be close in similarity.

    How could an economist, who is a party member, and candidate while speaking at an event in honor of the founder of the said party ‘raise economic issues, and recommend medicines’ not in line with the party’s methods? Time only will tell, but we already see, the political divide within the ranks of the opposition. They can’t lead a country in crisis like this, that’s why I constantly recommend political surgery in this country. These two cancerous parties need to be moved on, so we can breath fresh, clean political and economic air.

    Reply
  12. archy perch October 17, 2017 at 10:32 am

    Here we go again with Peter’s political agenda. Why doesn’t he become a candidate? Peter has spent all the years campaigning for the BLP, ever since he was sacked by CBC as a political analyst on September 1st, 2011. It was alleged that Peter – at that time- had leaked certain information to the US Embassy over several years, which were released by Wikileaks on August 30th 2011. Prime Minister Stuart holds the Ministry responsible for CBC. Then there is his homosexual agenda which he constantly pushes on the airways as a talk-show host. The anti-Christ positions he pushes also on his shows. Peter knows that chances of seeing same-sex marriages in Barbados, are greater next year when the BLP wins the general elections hands down. This is what he is banking on.

    Reply
  13. Mark My Word October 17, 2017 at 10:45 am

    All thee Sodomites predicting a BLP as they will be at home in the Briar Patch and well protected.

    Reply
  14. Patrick October 17, 2017 at 11:03 am

    Poor Harry, Mr. Know All.

    Reply
  15. Sheron Inniss October 17, 2017 at 11:21 am

    Right now Grenville at the top of my list and all the other parties. The Ds and Bs ain’t worth what paddy shoot at.

    Reply
  16. Milli Watt October 17, 2017 at 2:36 pm

    (m)an would not stop fudging de numbers……..ssstttuuuuppppssssseeeeee

    Reply
  17. Carson C Cadogan October 17, 2017 at 5:53 pm

    Peter

    You know that no one takes you seriously, other than MIA AMOR MOTTLEY.

    And she has her own issues.

    Is she or isn’t she qualified??????

    Reply
  18. Lorenzo October 17, 2017 at 7:02 pm

    Sga Boy ,CCC ,Mark my Word,milli Watt,Archy Perch,Patrick,and Carson all delusional Dems attacking the messenger rather than dealing with the message.Keep talking about 2013 ,we all know what happened back then But the old lady on the bus and other underhanded tactics will not work this time,so if you all are so confident call the Elections just remember 20,000 plus marched against your measures before,hence the delay.the Elections have to come and we will see what we shall see.

    Reply
  19. Mark My Word October 18, 2017 at 12:59 am

    Lord have mercy on Lorenzaaa she was like that from primary school days

    Reply
  20. Mark Adamson October 18, 2017 at 9:26 am

    And how many so-called safe seats does the BLP have??? Huh?

    The BLP has two so-called safe seats – St. Thomas and St. Peter.

    What a horrible political basket case of ignorance is Mr. Peter Wickham.

    All the newer parties in this country must decide once and for all to take CADRES to court.

    It is clear that CADRES has been violating the principle of free and fair elections being held in Barbados and has been harming the electoral chances of the candidates of these parties winning seats in this country.

    Politics is no Sunday School!!

    Reply
  21. Donild Trimp October 18, 2017 at 4:41 pm

    I do not see any evidence from the majority of people who are going to vote that the opposition BLP will form the next Government.

    What I am seeing is a hardcore group of BLP supporters who always going to vote BLP.

    The BLP is facing the same problem the Conservatives are facing in Toronto. People in Toronto would like to vote the Liberals out of power next year but are saying they will not do so because the Conservatives cannot come up with any new ideas.

    Barbadians are saying the same thing about the BLP.

    People are not going to vote for the BLP or any of the other fringe parties just for the sake of voting.

    Reply
  22. Donild Trimp October 18, 2017 at 4:42 pm

    I do not see any evidence from the majority of people who are going to vote that the opposition BLP will form the next Government.

    What I am seeing is a hardcore group of BLP supporters who are always going to vote BLP.

    The BLP is facing the same problem the Conservatives are facing in Toronto. People in Toronto would like to vote the Liberals out of power next year but are saying they will not do so because the Conservatives cannot come up with any new ideas.

    Barbadians are saying the same thing about the BLP.

    People are not going to vote for the BLP or any of the other fringe parties just for the sake of voting.

    Reply

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